Comprehensive plan rewrite project team leaders, including representatives from the City of Homer and Agnew::Beck Consulting and their partners, presented potential growth scenarios to a packed room at the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center during a community work session last Tuesday, Oct. 22.

The scenarios were built based on data, both qualitative and quantitative, and feedback gathered from multiple aspects of the City of Homer and its community since February, and explored how potential population and job growth might alter land use and development patterns over time. Responses gathered from Tuesday’s work session will help the project team to fine-tune the scenarios in preparation for community members to choose their preferred scenario at a future date.

According to an overview provided by the work session facilitators, these “exploratory” scenarios use data and community input to help community members navigate uncertainty and illustrate what a “desired future Homer” could look like. The scenarios are also intended to educate and build awareness around issues “faced by Homer now and in the future” and build consensus around possible solutions.

The scenarios and community feedback will also help the project team define comprehensive plan goals, strategies and actions, such as future policies and projects, to “guide Homer toward its desired future.”

The three potential growth scenarios were referred to as “Status Quo,” “Enhance” and “Amplify,” and reflected the least amount of growth to the most amount of growth, respectively. However, none of the three scenarios reflected a drastic level of change or dramatic amount of growth compared to Homer’s current status, to begin with.

Agnew::Beck consultant project manager Shelly Wade confirmed on Tuesday that all three scenarios were created based on majority feedback from previous community work sessions and surveys that showed that current Homer residents were primarily interested in “moderate” growth.

Status Quo

The “status quo” scenario, as the name implies, maintains current trends and projects a growth in population of about 4% by 2035. Within that 10-year period, the scenario also anticipates no actions taken to influence the economy, leading to an addition of approximately 89 jobs. Current zoning and land use codes outlined in Title 21 would remain in effect. The status quo also calls for the construction of 84 housing units. No new policies are anticipated for sustainability or for water utilities and infrastructure, though the scenario does note that inflow and infiltration still need to be addressed to preserve wastewater treatment capacity.

Regarding access and mobility within Homer, the status quo scenario includes the construction of nonmotorized pathways and trail connections to fill in gaps in the existing network, and a focus on maintaining existing sidewalks and trails to continually provide access. The scenario does not focus on motorized policies, or on parks and open spaces.

Enhance

The “Enhance” scenario calls for minimally increased density and a focus on current economic drivers, and projects a 6% increase in growth, spread equally across all age demographics, by 2035. Policies would contribute to economic growth of approximately 6%, or 146 jobs, with a focus on existing industries such as marine trades, education, health care and retail.

Land use and housing policies under the “Enhance” scenario would result in a decrease of undeveloped land and a “small” increase in density. Title 21 would undergo “minor” code modifications, such as updating the conditional use permit process, and result in more development and redevelopment of land. The updated zoning code would also “allow for minimal increases in density in key land uses such as residential.”

This scenario also anticipates the construction of 132 housing units and would look to define areas where housing types and density could be modified “to decrease housing costs relative to land value and availability.” It would also allow for consideration of mixed-use land use areas.

Regarding parks and open spaces, the “Enhance” scenario calls for the development of a City of Homer Parks and Recreation Master Plan, as well as the development and implementation of park-specific maintenance plans to “validate preventative maintenance and future scheduled replacement of amenities.” Under this scenario, neighborhood parks with playground equipment for children ages 2-5 could be provided within a half-mile of all homes within urban residential and mixed-use land use areas. The parks would also “support walkability” for families.

The “Enhance” scenario also calls for “some new policies” aligned with common strategies elsewhere for water utilities and infrastructure — more specifically, deliberate policies around green infrastructure and funding strategies and more technology for monitoring said infrastructure. It also includes the possibility of free public wifi in key areas such as parks, public transportation hubs and libraries.

This scenario does provide for sustainability policies that are more focused on greenhouse gas emissions. It calls for greenhouse gas emission reductions through implementing density, energy efficiency and renewable energy, as well as creating greater resilience by protecting vulnerable infrastructure.

On access and mobility, the “Enhance” scenario also does not focus on motorized policies. It includes non-motorized path and trail connections to allow community members to walk or bike with the “downtown core” of Homer, as well as between schools and “key community services” like the public library. Under this scenario, policies would focus on expanding path and trail services such as seating, restrooms and parking, and maintaining existing sidewalks and trails to continually provide nonmotorized access.

Amplify

The “Amplify” scenario projects the highest growth of the three possible futures, but still remains within the sphere of “moderate” growth. This future calls for a moderate increase in density and the encouragement of new economic drivers aimed toward young families.

Projected population growth by 2035 under “Amplify” sits at about 8%, with 5% specifically occurring in age groups related to young families. In this scenario, policies would contribute to economic growth of also 8%, or 166 jobs, with 5% focused on existing job industries including construction, retail, information, education, healthcare, social assistance, arts, recreation, accommodations and food services. Policies would also be geared toward encouraging growth in new industries such as professional services/remote work, agriculture and mariculture, and university collaborations.

Regarding land use and housing, regulatory framework under Title 21, including zoning and planning, would be “overhauled” for a higher chance of development and redevelopment of land. Updated zoning code would allow for a “moderate” increase in density for land uses such as residential and commercial.

Like the “Enhance” scenario, policies under “Amplify” would result in a decrease of undeveloped land. “Amplify” would also enable the redevelopment of properties and allow for a “moderate,” rather than minimal, increase in density. This scenario anticipates the construction of 174 new housing units and a 9% reduction in vacant residential lots. The scenario would also create additional areas where housing types and density could be modified to decrease housing costs relative to land value and availability. Two examples of land use areas noted are urban residential and residential transition.

“Amplify” also takes the planning for parks and open spaces under “Enhance” to the next level. In this third scenario, neighborhood parks with playgrounds for children ages 5-12 would be provided within a half-mile of all homes in the residential transition land use area and would support walkability for families and older children. The scenario also calls for the development of additional community and regional park facilities to complement or expand recreation opportunities, including indoor options.

Under “Amplify,” more ambitious new and cutting-edge policies would address water, utilities and infrastructure. This scenario would see net-zero energy use in public buildings, subsidized high-speed internet access, and growth-based utility fee adjustments, meaning that utility fee structures would be adjusted at the borough level to provide financial incentives and support for cities that need to expand water, sewer or other essential services. Sustainability policies under this scenario are more focused on infrastructure — particularly green infrastructure, such as bioswales, LEED-certified buildings and electric vehicle charging stations. “Amplify” would also work for tax credits, grants or streamlined permitting for private companies and residents who voluntarily install renewable energy systems on their homes and structures.

Regarding access and mobility, “Amplify” calls for “robust” nonmotorized path and trail connections to create a greater deal of walkability, allowing community members to walk, hike, ski or bike to and from work, school, recreation and community services. The scenario would also focus on increased expansion of the path and trail services outlined in “Enhance,” and increase maintenance to continually provide access. Diverting from both “Status Quo” and “Enhance,” “Amplify” would also address motorized transportation policies to directly support non-motorized infrastructure such as parking and traffic calming.

Check out the growth scenarios online

For community members who missed the work session, or who did attend but needed additional time to consider the information presented and provide feedback, the three potential growth scenarios will soon be available on the Homer Comprehensive Plan Update website. Community members will also have the opportunity to provide feedback and comments online.

Through November and December, the project team will be working to finalize Homer’s preferred growth scenario based on feedback received. They will also begin work on drafting the updated comprehensive plan.

Find the scenarios and other information and updates at homercompplanupdate.com/.

The Comprehensive Plan Steering Committee met on Wednesday, Oct. 23 with Agnew::Beck project consultants following the community work session. Find the recording online at www.cityofhomer-ak.gov/cityclerk/comprehensive-plan-steering-committee-regular-meeting.

Community members review and discuss the “Enhance” growth scenario with each other and with comprehensive plan rewrite project team members during a community work session on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, at the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center in Homer, Alaska. (Delcenia Cosman/Homer News)

Community members examine illustrations of the three proposed growth plans created by the comprehensive plan rewrite project team during a community work session on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, at the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center in Homer, Alaska. (Delcenia Cosman/Homer News)